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  • Writer's pictureBlake Millner

NFL Picks Week 5

Updated: Oct 10, 2021


Bills @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Pick: KC -2.5

Kansas City comes into Sunday Night Football fresh off a 42-30 offensive showcase against the Eagles in Philadelphia, following a surprising 1-2 start to the season. Buffalo has crushed their previous three foes by a combined score of 118-21 following the opening week loss to Pittsburgh, it should be noted that Buffalo's last three opponents were the Dolphins, Football Team, and the Texans. Regardless of the current trajectory of the teams, there is no way you can pick against Patrick Mahomes in a prime-time game. The Chiefs easily swept away the Bills in the two meetings last year and I expect nothing different on Sunday night. The Bills defense will not be able to stop Mahomes + Co. from scoring and I feel like the KC defense will force a turnover or two in order to keep the momentum from swinging to the visitors. It's rare to find such a small spread for KC to cover these days, so take it and run with it.

Giants @ Cowboys (-7)

The Pick: DAL -7

The reason this spread is only seven is that the Giants improbably found a way to win in New Orleans last week, never mind the fact that New Orleans is horribly inconsistent and Dallas has posted two straight dominant wins. Daniel Jones is a threat to himself and everyone around him when under center and the Dallas defense will be able to contain him all afternoon. Plus, the potent Cowboys offense will be able to have their way with the New York defense. I could possibly see the Giants keeping it close if the game were in New York, but this game is in AT&T Stadium and the crowd will be rocking. It is also worth noting that Dallas has covered the spread in every game this year.

Saints @ The Football Team

The Pick: NO -2

New Orleans is consistently inconsistent and last week's home loss to the Giants was embarrassing and should forever be a black stain on Sean Payton's legacy (even more so than bounty gate). So far the Saints have alternated between hot, cold, hot, and then cold. If you can see the pattern then you would expect the Saints to be hot this week. The Football Team has gone loss, win, loss, win to start the season. This pattern suggests that Washington will lose this weekend. Combine these two patterns and we can predict that the Saints will beat the Football Team on Sunday. While I try to avoid such rudimentary logic, I just believe that the Saints will win and this supports my case :)

Titans @ Jaguars

The Pick: TEN -4.5

As long as Urban Meyer is coaching the Jaguars, I feel comfortable picking against Jacksonville. Meyer has become a major distraction and not in a good way. The Titans have had their ups and downs this year, winning in Seattle and then losing to the Jets (just last week), but they are the far superior team. The Titans are 8-1 against the Jags over their last nine meetings. Of those eight wins, the Titans won six by more than four points. Derrick Henry will dominate this game and guide Tennessee to an easy victory.

Browns @ Chargers

The Pick: LAC -1.5

The Chargers looked like world-beaters against the Raiders in the first half of MNF, but nearly let the game slip away in the second half. Regardless, a win is a win and now the Chargers will take on another oft-maligned franchise this Sunday. The Browns won last week primarily because the Vikings offense decided to take the afternoon off and their three victories have come against teams with a combined 4-8 record. This Chargers team won In Kansas City only two weeks ago and have shown themselves to be a force to be reckoned with this season. The Chargers will take another step in the right direction Sunday and move to 4-1 for the first time since 2014.

Best of the rest:

Rams @ Seahawks: LAR -2.5

Jets @ Falcons (London): ATL -3

Eagles @ Panthers: CAR -3.5

Packers @ Bengals: CIN +3

Patriots @ Texans: NE -9

Lions @ Vikings: MIN -9

Broncos @ Steelers: PIT -1

Dolphins @ Buccaneers: TB -10

Bears @ Raiders: LV -5.5

49ers @ Cardinals: SF +5.5

Colts @ Ravens: BAL -7

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