Following the three games on Thanksgiving, we find ourselves with a smaller slate of games for Sunday. There are still plenty of games to pick though, here are the best bets. Last week my locks of the week went 4-1 (18-17 YTD) and 9-6 overall, additionally I went three for three on Thanksgiving games (54-49-1 YTD).
Panthers @ Dolphins
The Pick: MIA +2.5
Let's keep the good times rolling this week, I am gonna continue to ride the Dolphin train this Sunday. Miami has won three in a row and has covered the spread in four of the past five games. The defense has continued its hot play over that stretch while only allowing 12 points a game, this is a good matchup against a Panthers offense that ranks 26th in yards per game. For the Panthers, the honeymoon phase of the reunion with Cam Newton is over as Carolina took the loss against the Football Team last week. Don't expect the Panthers to turn it around this week against a tough defense though, go with the Dolphins.
Chargers @ Broncos
The Pick: LAC -2.5
The Chargers have never particularly enjoyed trips to Mile High in Denver, as the team has only posted a 2-8 record over their last 10 visits. I am concerned about Justin Herbert's ability to navigate the better defenses of the NFL, but last week's 41-37 win over the Steelers and their highly toughed defensive unit helped alleviate my concerns. Denver has a solid defense, but the team is just struggling to stay afloat with a 2-5 record over the last two months. The Broncos have routinely gotten the better of the Chargers over the years but look for history to be changed in this one because with Herbert at the helm, the sky is the limit.
Rams @ Packers
The Pick: LAR -1.5
Here we have a rematch from last year's playoffs, a game that the Packers easily won 32-18. This time will be different though because the Rams have a real quarterback for the matchup. Jared Goff has been banished to hell, as known as Detriot. *When Sean McVay told Jared Goff he had been traded to the Lions:*
The Rams got a much-needed bye week to reset after two consecutive losses. McVay has now had time to incorporate Odell Beckham Jr. in the offense and figure out how the loss of Robert Woods will be overcome. The Packers, meanwhile, are limping their way towards their week 13 bye and have taken a loss two out of the last three weeks. The Rams are 3-1 following a bye under Sean McVay and I expect them to exact revenge on the road this week.
Eagles @ Giants
The Pick: PHI -3.5
The Eagles have finally forced my hand, the team has been screwing up my picks for much of the season now. This is the week that I will try to give Philidelphia the respect they have earned. Back-to-back wins over the Broncos and Saints have put the Eagles back into the playoff picture. Now the team will take on the listless Giants who just fired their offensive coordinator. The Giants are a spunky team with plenty of fight in them, but the team is in disarray and Daniel Jones is back to his turnover-prone ways. The Eagles have dominated the Giants for quite a while now as the team is 20-5 against New York over the last 25 meetings. There is no way you can trust New York to win a game or cover a spread at this time. Fail me this week, and I will not touch a Philidelphia game for the rest of the season, this is my promise.
Titans @ Patriots
The Pick: NE -7
How will the Titans move the ball now? No Derrick Henry and now no AJ Brown. This is a recipe for disaster against a Patriots team that has shut down opposing offenses for the previous five weeks. The offense performed admirably for a few weeks, but the wheels finally fell off against the Texans. The lack of a running game forced Tannehill to throw more and the results were horrific (four picks in total!). The performance cemented the theory that Ryan Tannehill is not a throw-first quarterback and struggles without a consistent run game. I know the spread is large, but as I said before, I just don't see how how the Titans are gonna score enough to keep this one close. The only hope would be to force Mac Jones to make a few turnovers, but the young gunslinger has only committed three errors that gifted the other team the ball over his last five games. Fade the Titans this week and stick with the white-hot Patriots.
The Best of the Rest:
Steelers @ Bengals: CIN -3.5
Jets @ Texans: HOU -2.5
Buccaneers @ Colts: IND +3
Falcons @ Jaguars: ATL -2
Vikings @ 49ers: MIN +3.5
Browns @ Ravens: BAL -3.5
Seahawks @ The Football Team: SEA PK